Another year, another chance to get a perfect score predicting who will win on Oscars night. (Chalk that up to optimism, not cockiness.) The Academy will finally hand out its little gold men on April 25, months later than usual — due to the worldwide pandemic — and officially bringing 2021’s never-ending awards season to an end.
So, who will win? Here are ET’s predictions for the 93rd Academy Awards in all 23 categories, from Best Picture right on down to the shorts. My guesses are based on who’s been winning with the guilds and other precursor awards shows, as well as deciphering the ever-changing favor of Academy voters. Although, in an awards season like no other, there’s still plenty of room for surprises. If everything goes according to plan, though — and by plan, I mean my predictions — this could be a historic Oscars.
Best Picture
Nomadland
Searchlight Pictures
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who should win: Minari
Who will win: Nomadland
Has a Best Picture race ever felt like such a done deal? Even in years where there’s been an obvious frontrunner, there was still some room for surprise come Oscars night. That doesn’t seem to be the case this year, where Nomadland is so primed to win that if any other film were read off, we would say, “Why do they keep letting Warren Beatty present Best Picture?!”
Chloé Zhao’s resilient road movie became the first film to ever win both Venice’s Golden Lion Award and the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award, the latter heralding it as one to watch come awards season. Then Nomadland won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award and, most important, Producers Guild Award, and it became the only one to watch. I love Nomadland, but even I’m a bit surprised it’s so far and away the only choice, especially up against the achingly beautiful Minari, which envelops you like a warm hug and makes you feel like everything might be OK after all.
Who should win: Chadwick Boseman
Who will win: Chadwick Boseman
The surest sure thing at this year’s Oscars is that Chadwick Boseman will win his first Oscar, and rightfully so: That the late actor will win posthumously gives the honor an extra poignancy, but don’t let that cloud the fact that he deserves it, having acted the house down in Ma Rainey. With this final performance, Boseman left it all onscreen. He’s won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award and SAG Award already, now he will complete his set with an Oscar.
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
I’m sorry, dear reader, to not give you one definitive pick here, but this race feels too close to call. Most years, a clear frontrunner will have emerged after pulling off consecutive wins at a number of precursor awards shows, but, this year, Viola Davis got the SAG Award, Andra Day won at the Golden Globes and Carey Mulligan took Critics Choice, while Vanessa Kirby and Frances McDormand were the only two to earn BAFTA nominations.
If you look to SAG as the decisive predictor, then this is Davis’ to lose. (Which would be historic, the first time in Oscars’ history all four acting winners were people of color.) My bet remains on Mulligan, though, who has yet to win an Academy Award (unlike Davis and McDormand) and who delivers a singular performance, flexing every single actorly muscle she’s got (and some we didn’t know she had) right up until the end.
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Who should win: Daniel Kaluuya
Who will win: Daniel Kaluuya
It must be said, Paul Raci is the only nominee this year who is actually supporting. But some category fudging aside — nothing new at the Oscars — Daniel Kaluuya is the clear pick to win, having clinched the Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award and SAG Award. The movie is basically an acting showcase for Kaluuya, and playing Black Panther Party Chairman Fred Hampton, he expertly balances the showier monologues of Hampton the revolutionary with the more vulnerable moments of Hampton the man. (I wouldn’t worry too much about the possibility of Kaluuya splitting votes with Judas co-star Lakeith Stanfield, since the latter’s inclusion in the category remains a head-scratcher.)
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Who should win: Yuh-Jung Youn
Who will win: Yuh-Jung Youn
What once felt like this year’s most difficult race to predict now feels fairly settled. Initially, it appeared Amanda Seyfried was the frontrunner, but then she missed at SAG and stumbled in the standings. So, perhaps it would be Maria Bakalova then, who indubitably generated the most headlines for her performance, taking on a real-world villain in Rudy Giuliani. But what of the legendary Glenn Close or Academy darling Olivia Colman, could either sneak in at the last second?
No. Yuh-Jung Youn winning the SAG Award (and giving the night’s most delightful acceptance speech) has ended this debate, setting her up to become the first Korean actor to ever win an Academy Award. (Notably, Close would then tie Peter O’Toole’s record for most nominations without a win. Next time!)
Best Picture and Best Director don’t necessarily go hand-in-hand, but when the Picture winner is as much a filmmaker’s film as Nomadland is, Chloé Zhao will surely collect a little gold man as its director ahead of taking the night’s top honor. (She’s swept the awards circuit thus far.) Zhao’s film is exquisitely cinematic and deeply human, and she not only directs an Oscar-worthy turn from star Frances McDormand but equally touching performances from her cast of non-professional actors and real-world nomads. When she wins, she will become only the second female winner in Oscars history (after Kathryn Bigelow in 2010), and the first Asian woman to win Best Director.
Nomadland, Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami, Kemp Powers
The White Tiger, Ramin Bahrani
Who should win: The Father or One Night in Miami
Who will win: Nomadland
The Writers Guild Awards are hardly a guarantee of how the Academy will cast its vote, though it’s smart to consult the guild’s winners in crystal balling the Oscars. (Last year, both Jojo Rabbit and Parasite won with the WGA and went on to win at the Oscars.) The heavily improvised Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, which tallies a whopping eight writers, won the WGA, but due to guild rules, neither Nomadland nor The Father were even in contention. I predict the former — which, while sparse in dialogue, does impressively adapt its non-fiction source material — will collect another W here.
I would love to see Florian Zeller (with co-writer Christopher Hampton) or Kemp Powers pull off an upset here, each having adapted their own plays and managing to avoid the final film feeling like a recorded stage show, while still holding onto all those exquisitely crafted monologues. If I had to pick one, I’d go with Powers, who had a helluva year having written both One Night in Miami and Soul.
