Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to address the nation on Wednesday in his annual “State of the Nation” address, a speech that will take place amid growing tensions with Ukraine and a hunger strike by dissident Alexei Navalny.
In the last week, there have been further reports that Russian troops are massing at the border with Ukraine, potentially preparing for military action.
Navalny, on hunger strike in a Russian prison, has become dangerously ill and has been moved to a prison hospital. The news prompted warnings from the U.S. that there would be “consequences” if Russia allows Navalny to die in jail.
In addition, Russia has been accused of orchestrating an attack on a Czech armaments dump in 2014, with the Czech Republic expelling 18 Russian diplomats this week. Russia denies that two of its military intelligence agents — the same men believed to have carried out a nerve agent attack on a former spy in Britain in 2018 — carried out the Czech attack, but the news has nonetheless added to the negative news flow around Putin’s Russia.
Last week, the U.S. imposed more sanctions on Russia over 2020 election interference, a cyberattack on U.S. government and corporate networks, its annexation and occupation of Ukraine’s Crimea, and human rights abuses.
Whether Putin will address such recent events in his annual address on Wednesday is uncertain. Although, as Daragh McDowell, head of Europe and principal Russia analyst at Verisk Maplecroft noted Tuesday, the speech has often been “the set piece for major policy announcements.”
The question now is whether a proportionate response by the U.S. to Russia will win the day
The address usually covers a wide range of topics, from the economy and defense to education and family life. The coronavirus pandemic is bound to be on the agenda, too, with the virus hitting the country hard over the past year.
Russia’s plans when it comes to foreign policy and geopolitical relations are bound to be closely watched by experts, particularly when it comes to its neighbor Ukraine.
Ukraine
Close watchers of Russia are particularly perplexed by reports that the country has been massing troops at the Ukraine border, with the EU’s foreign affairs chief estimating on Tuesday the size of the deployment to be 100,000 troops.
“Only last week military analysts were playing down the size of the Russian deployment but it now looks pretty sizeable,” Timothy Ash, a senior emerging market strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in a note Tuesday.
″(You’ve) got to ask yourself why Putin feels the need to put such a large force ‘in theatre’ as it goes a lot further than sabre rattling. The deployment is bigger than 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and invaded Donbas — let’s not forget that. Why bother unless something serious is actually planned?,” he asked.
Ash questioned what Putin’s strategic objectives could be in Ukraine, a country with whom Russia has had tense relations ever since its 2014 annexation of Crimea.
“Is that securing water supplies for Crimea, (a) land bridge to Crimea, or giving Ukrainian forces such a beating that the government in Kyiv sues for a peace which gives Russia lasting strategic dominance over Ukraine?,” Ash asked.
