The closer we get to Election Day, the more the question becomes inescapable: What happens after Election Day?
In the aftermath of the 2020 election, then-President Donald Trump’s quest to hold on to power, first by challenging his loss and then by an ever-increasing pressure campaign on those responsible for confirming the results, culminated in a historic act of political violence: the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Now, coming up to the finish line of the next presidential election, there are indications that Americans are again worried about the possibility of political violence.
In a Scripps News/Ipsos poll released Oct. 24, 62% of Americans surveyed said that violence related to the election was “somewhat” or “very” likely, with a majority of both Republicans (59%) and Democrats (70%) agreeing that was the case.
There have already been worrying instances of actual violence against people and processes as the election draws near: Ballot boxes have been set on fire in several states, and there have been threats of violence at polling stations. And there have been two apparent assassination attempts against Trump.
U.S. intelligence has also warned about the possibility of violence and unrest. Reports from various news publications revealed that intelligence agencies, including the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security, had sent local law enforcement agencies a number of bulletins warning that domestic “violent” extremists were a threat to the election and its aftermath, with candidates, election workers and others considered targets. The bulletins also warned of violence at polling places, ballot boxes and political events, according to NBC News.
“If there’s a very close election, there are a lot of people who are feeling extremely angry or extremely threatened, and particularly if it’s looking like Trump loses, he has supporters who are likely to engage in a lot of threats and intimidation and possibly some physical violence,” said Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a nonpartisan think tank.
The rhetoric that Trump, at least, has used on the campaign trail hasn’t helped. The Republican presidential nominee has said he would prosecute his political enemies andwould use the military to quash protests, and he has consistently used violent language when talking about groups he disparages — the migrant “invasion” that is “poisoning the blood” of America, for example.
And perhaps most important, he has already been laying the groundwork to once again question the validity of the election if he loses. Which, in the very likely event of a close election that could takes a few days to determine, could be a hazard.
“The uncertainty is probably the biggest risk factor,” Kleinfeld said. “Obviously, if we get a strong turnout and everybody clearly knows who won, that would be wonderful. But the likelihood is a lot of litigation, dissension and mis- and dis-information.”
The presidential race is uncomfortably close. Polls have Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, neck and neck, often either in a dead tie or within a percentage point or two of each other. And there are many indications that, barring an (unlikely) early landslide of results, Americans probably won’t know who won until several days after the election.
Insurrectionists loyal to President Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier on Jan. 6, 2021, at the U.S. Capitol while both houses of Congress were meeting to certify the electoral vote.
Julio Cortez/Associated Press
In particular, the increased use of mail-in ballots and, to some extent, early voting has created delays in counting ballots in some states that could slow the vote counts. Swing state Pennsylvania, for example, prohibits election officials from opening and beginning to process mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day. As of Oct. 30, the state had received requests for more than 2 million mail-in and absentee ballots. That’s over 2 million individual, physical ballots that will have to be removed from envelopes, checked for accurate voter information and tallied — work that cannot start until Tuesday morning.
“[It’s] just very unlikely that we’ll know for days, possibly even a week or two,” says Kleinfeld. She also points out that, due to changes to the Presidential Transition Act in 2022, if the results are unclear and neither candidate has conceded by five days after the election, both candidates will be allowed to begin their transition to the Oval Office, “which will make them both look like they’re the legitimate winner to their supporters who aren’t used to seeing that happen,” Kleinfeld noted.
“So I think you’re likely to have a period of real uncertainty with a lot of fear, anger ― and, as a result, you’ll see, probably, armed mobs at the homes and the workplaces of people who those individuals think could make a difference. And you’re likely to see a lot of intimidation against election officials, which we’re already seeing, but it’s likely to go up if there’s people that those individuals think … they can pressure,” she added.
However, she cautioned that the number of bad actors is fairly low. “The vast majority of Americans, while they are worried about political violence, don’t believe that it’s right, good — that political violence is justified.”
A PRRI survey from early September found that fewer than 1 in 5 Americans agreed with cited measures of political violence, including the statement that “true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.” And even among those polled by Scripps/Ipsos, the vast majority said that they would accept the election results even if their preferred candidate loses. Only 8% said they were willing to accept violence in order to secure their preferred election outcome.
Kleinfeld noted that simply spreading information and reassuring voters that the election is safe and fair — and straight-up normalizing the fact that we likely won’t know the results for a while — can be an important tool in staving off violence. “It’s certainly a best practice and can really reduce the likelihood of people getting agitated, concerned that something nefarious was happening,” she said.
V“None of this is inevitable,” she added. “By making the polls in the post-polling period more joyful and normalizing that when our country is this close, we don’t know on election night the way we used to, the less likely it is to have violence.”
Legal experts have been working hard to affirm public faith in the election. “We’ve seen an assault in two dimensions, in the court of public opinion and in the court of law, and that is the basic structure that we also saw in the 2020 assault on democracy,” Norm Eisen,special counsel to the House Judiciary Committee majority during Trump’s first impeachment trial and an “ethics czar” in the Obama administration, said on a press call organized by the Defend Democracy Project earlier this week. “That is the identical pattern that has commenced in 2024 and that we expect to continue in the post-election process. And part of the reason that we can be confident that the system is strong enough once again to withstand these predations is because that’s what’s happening.”
Eisen cited a number of recent legal decisions that have upheld election security, including the defeats of an attempt to purge voter rolls in Alabama and an attempt to change voting rules in Georgia to make it easier for Trump allies to challenge results.
“The threats will be more severe if the election is close, but the system is tested. Our election officials are ready like never before,” Eisen added.
“There are thousands of people working to make sure that the elections are run as well as possible, are as safe as possible afterward,” Kleinfeld said. “They’re coordinating with law enforcement to keep individuals involved with the election safe. They’re coordinating with communities to keep communities that might be targeted safe.”
