The UK’s coronavirus death toll is much higher than thought and the number of excess deaths from all causes is believed to be about 64,000, according to new data from the Office for National Statistic
The number of coronavirus deaths in the UK is about 11,000 higher than the Government’s official toll, new figures show.
The true total is now just under 52,000, according to a tally of official data from each UK nation, as the Department of Health’s total stands at 40,597 across all settings.
There are now almost 64,000 excess deaths from all causes, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Tuesday.
Less than a fifth of deaths registered in the week ending May 29 in England and Wales involved Covid-19 – the lowest proportion since the week lockdown was imposed in March, figures show.
There were 9,824 deaths registered in that week – a fall from the previous week but still 1,653 deaths higher than what would usually be expected, the ONS said.
Of these, 1,822 involved Covid-19 – 18.5 per cent of the total that week and the lowest number of weekly coronavirus deaths for eight weeks.
The North West, which is an area of concern for the rate of transmission, had the highest number of deaths involving coronavirus over the week with 282.
More than a quarter (25.6 per cent) of deaths in the North East that week involved Covid-19 – the highest proportion across all of England’s regions.
(The number of deaths in England and Wales above the average amount, but not necessarily caused by Covid-19)
It is also the first time the proportion of weekly coronavirus deaths has fallen to under a fifth since the week lockdown was imposed, the week ending March 27, when the virus accounted for 5 per cent of the deaths.
While numbers are falling, there have been tens of thousands of “excess” deaths compared to the average number of deaths over five years for the same period.
The ONS said 13,460 deaths occurred in care homes in England and Wales up to May 29, and that week there were 819 more deaths in care homes compared with the five-year average, and 30 fewer deaths in hospitals.
While there was a decrease in the number of deaths from all causes in hospitals, care homes, private homes and hospices, the proportion of hospital deaths involving coronavirus increased.
It rose from just over half (51 per cent) in the week ending May 22 to 55.1 per cent in the week ending May 29.
The number of coronavirus deaths occurring in care homes fell from 42.1 per cent to 38.7 per cent over the same period.
New figures show that, of all deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales registered up to May 29, 64 per cent (29,227 deaths) occurred in hospital.
A further 29 per cent (13,460 deaths) took place in care homes, with 5 per cent (2,070) in private homes, 1 per cent (612) in hospices, 0.4 per cent (204) in other communal establishments, and 0.4 per cent (175) elsewhere.
Tuesday’s release takes the overall coronavirus death toll for the UK to 51,766, based on death certificates where coronavirus was mentioned and deaths of confirmed cases in hospitals.
This is more than 10,000 above the latest tally of related deaths calculated by the Department of Health & Social Care – 40,597 people who have died after testing positive for Covid-19.
The figures are as of May 29 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and May 31 in Scotland.
They also include more recent hospital deaths.
Unlike the lower death toll published daily by the government, the death certificate figures include suspected cases.
The figures show that 46,421 deaths involving Covid-19 had occurred in England and Wales up to May 29 (and had been registered by June 6).
Figures published last week by the National Records for Scotland showed that 3,911 deaths involving Covid-19 had been registered in Scotland up to May 31.
And the latest figures from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, also published last week, showed 757 deaths involving Covid-19 had occurred in Northern Ireland up to May 29 (and had been registered up to June 3).
Together these figures mean that so far 51,089 deaths have been registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, including suspected cases.
Between May 30 and June 7, a further 616 hospital patients who had tested positive for Covid-19 died in England, according to NHS England; while a further 52 people in hospital and care homes who had tested positive for Covid-19 died in Wales, according to Public Health Wales.
And in Northern Ireland, a further nine people who had tested positive for Covid-19 died between May 30 and June 7, according to the Northern Ireland Department of Health.
These add up to a further 677 deaths that have occurred since May 30, and together with the total figure of 51,089 registered deaths, mean the overall death toll for the UK is now just under 52,000, at 51,766.
Details of deaths that took place in Scotland since the cut-off point for the latest registration data (May 31) are not available, because the Scottish Government does not report deaths by the date on which they occurred.
Britain has the highest toll in Europe and the second-highest in the world, behind only the US (113,061), although Brazil (37,312) is poised to overtake the UK as its outbreak spirals out of control.
Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at the ONS, said some deaths involving coronavirus in care homes “will have brought forward deaths that might otherwise have happened relatively soon”.
He tweeted: “We might expect deaths not involving Covid in care homes to fall below 5-yr avgs (average) in the next few weeks”.
The number of excess deaths in the UK since the coronavirus outbreak began has passed 63,500.
Tuesday’s figures from the Office for National Statistics, which show 57,961 excess deaths in England and Wales between March 21 and May 29, follow figures last week showing the equivalent numbers for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The National Records of Scotland found there were 4,729 excess deaths in Scotland between March 23 and May 31, while the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency put the figure for Northern Ireland at 906 excess deaths between March 21 and May 29.
Together, this means the total number of excess deaths in the UK across this period now stands at 63,596.
All figures are based on death registrations.
The ONS figures show Covid-19 was responsible for 78 per cent of the excess deaths registered in England and Wales between March 21 and May 29.
There were 57,961 excess deaths in total, which is the number of deaths above the average for this period in the previous five years.
Some 45,408 were deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, including suspected cases.
The overall number of excess deaths registered per week has fallen from a peak of 11,854 in the week ending April 17 to 1,653 in the week ending May 29.
A separate study published today by the University of Manchester suggests that more than a fifth (21 per cent) of excess deaths that had taken place in England and Wales by early May were not linked to Covid-19.
The authors say these deaths were “driven by the inability or reluctance of people to access health services for other health needs”.
The study found that the highest rate of non-Covid-19 excess deaths during this period was in the West Midlands – 26 per 100,000 population – followed by Eastern England (21 per 100,000) and north-west England and London (both 20 per 100,000).
The authors used ONS data going back to January 2010 to better reflect long-term trends in seasonality and mortality.
