Investors have high expectations for the global oil recovery because of the economic pick up in the U.S. — but those expectations could be “too optimistic,” according to energy analyst Vandana Hari.
“The U.S. rebound and the U.S. leaving behind all Covid restrictions almost … dramatically, starting in April and May, has taken the markets by surprise,” said Hari, founder and chief executive officer of Vanda Insights.
“But that has also set expectations on a slightly different, more optimistic path,” she told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Friday.
Multiple states in the U.S. have lifted Covid restrictions and a sense of normalcy has somewhat returned in the country.
“The U.S. macroeconomic indicators, the mobility indicators — are all going gangbusters,” she said.
A relatively high vaccination rate has been an important part of the U.S. reopening. As of July 3, more than half the population — or 54.45% — has received at least one vaccine doses, according to Our World in Data.
A relatively high vaccination rate has been an important part of the U.S. reopening. As of July 3, more than half the population — or 54.45% — has received at least one vaccine doses, according to Our World in Data.
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Hari said the oil market appears to be using the U.S. as a model for what is going to unfold in the rest of the world.
“It may be too optimistic, but that’s what the market is factoring in,” she said.
Richer countries are leading the way when it comes to vaccinations and reopening, but Covid cases are still raging in many poorer nations that are unlikely to be able to follow the path of the U.S.
Oil price predictions
While she’s “constructive” about where oil prices may be headed, Hari said she was less of a “raging bull” than those calling for $80 in 2021 or even $100 oil in 2022.
Brent prices could stay close to where they are now — in the $70 to $75 range — at least for the summer months, she said.
Brent crude futures traded at $76.09 a barrel on Monday in Asia, lower by 0.11%. U.S. crude futures were also lower by about 0.12% at $75.07 ahead of another meeting of OPEC and its allies, referred to collectively as OPEC+. The group failed to reach an oil output agreement on Thursday and Friday but will reconvene again on Monday to try to hammer out a deal on its production policy.
International benchmark Brent is up more than 45% since the beginning of the year, while the Nymex is 55% higher year-to-date.
Still, Hari acknowledged downside risks to oil prices.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty still in the air with regard to the virus, the variants and how … countries manage,” she said.
Most of the world still won’t be close to mass immunity in the second half of 2021, she added.
