As Iran boosts uranium enrichment to 60%, a short jump to military grade at 90%, world powers are trying to coax the Islamic Republic to take a pause.
Meetings designed to return both Iran and the United States to a form of the nuclear deal signed in 2015, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, restarted in Austria this week.
While Israel is not a part of the talks, it is a main player in the drama that could quickly escalate.
Israel, along with its Arab allies including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia want the U.S. to increase the pressure on Iran by strengthening the JCPOA to include terrorism, missile development and what they call “Iran’s expansionism” throughout the Middle East.
Iran and Israel have been engaged in a shadow war that has intensified in the last month. An explosion disrupted one of Iran’s nuclear power centers in Natanz; one of Iran’s spy ships was hit with an explosive device in the Red Sea; and at least two Israeli owned cargo ships have been targeted.
Iran’s decision to increase uranium enrichment came after the explosion at Natanz, which the Islamic Republic has blamed on Israel.
Israel has vowed to destroy Iran’s nuclear program if all else fails, and they have experience in that arena.
Forty years ago in June 1981, eight Israeli F-16s took off, flew over the Red Sea, straddled the Jordanian – Saudi border, and dropped their bombs on Iraq’s nuclear power plant in Osirak days before it was set to go hot. It was called Operation Opera and one of the pilots was Gen. Amos Yadlin.
In 2007, Yadlin, while serving as the head of military intelligence for the Israeli army, helped design a second operation. This one targeted Syria’s secret nuclear power plant. Operation Orchard was also a success — the target was completely destroyed.
Yadlin said if it comes down to it, this time will be very different: “Saddam and Assad were surprised. Iran has been waiting for this attack for 20 years.”
Yadlin said Iran’s program is “much more fortified and dispersed,” while Iraq and Syria’s nuclear programs were concentrated in one place. Iran’s nuclear program is in dozens of sites, many buried deep beneath mountains. On top of that, it isn’t clear intelligence agencies know all the details about the locations of Iran’s program.
“Iran has learned from what we have done but we have also learned from what we have done and now we have more capabilities,” said Yadlin.
Military planners in Israel say, regardless of the Vienna talks, they have five strategies to stop Iran:
Option 1: Push for a stronger agreement between Iran, the U.S., Russia, China, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
Option 2: Demonstrate to Iran the cost is too big, in terms of sanctions and diplomacy, to continue on the current path.
Option 3: What’s known in Israel as “Strategy C” — using covert attacks, clandestine actions and cyberattacks. In essence, try everything short of war.
Option 4: Bomb Iran’s nuclear program.
Option 5: Push for regime change in Iran. This is the most difficult strategy.
Because of the strength of the ayatollahs – their control of the military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and a powerful force known for its brutality, the Basij – fomenting internal rebellion is a long shot.
