For the fourth time in less than two years, Israelis are voting Tuesday as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to maintain his grip on power after a record-breaking 12 consecutive years in office.
Indicted for alleged bribery and fraud, he has refused to resign, polarizing the country between diehard supporters and enraged opponents, and sparking a political gridlock that has led Israel to hold elections more frequently than any other major democracy.
Netanyahu no longer has former President Donald Trump’s policy gifts and pre-election boosts. Instead, a world-leading COVID-19 vaccination drive and a quick reopening of the economy ahead of this weekend’s Passover holiday has brought Netanyahu a surge of admiration that he hopes will carry him to victory.
“We went from slavery to freedom,” said retired postal worker and Netanyahu voter Herzel Guetta vacationing in Jerusalem after a long period of lockdowns, borrowing a phrase from the Passover story of the biblical exodus from Egypt. “He really cared.”
Even Israelis who want to unseat him give Bibi, Netanyahu’s popular nickname, credit for convincing Pfizer to choose Israel to host an early vaccine rollout, vaccinating more Israelis per capita than any other country.
“He came out as a genius with corona. He opened up the economy with concerts. He proved himself with vaccines, one of the highest vaccination rates in the world,” said Shani Segalovich, 20, eating lunch in a Jerusalem market. “I want change, but I have a feeling Bibi will win.”
Polls predict a tight race with Netanyahu having a slight advantage over his rivals to form a hard-right government comprised of Jewish religious parties, far-right ultranationalist and anti-LGBTQ factions.
Such a government would favor strengthening Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which the Biden administration and most countries oppose as an obstacle to peace with the Palestinians. It could also seek to limit the power of the judiciary, which Netanyahu has alleged is conspiring to oust him through his corruption trial, and could pass laws helping Netanyahu evade prosecution.
If Netanyahu does not manage to form a majority coalition of 61 out of 120 lawmakers in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, pollsters warn of yet another stalemate, leading to unprecedented fifth elections. That’s because the alternative to a Netanyahu-led government is an ill-fitting collection of malcontents.
They include former right-wing allies of Netanyahu, left, center and Arab parties, all of whom oppose Netanyahu but have little else in common, disagreeing on everything from ideology to who among them should lead.
Netanyahu has gained momentum in part because he has splintered his opposition.
Centrist former army chief of staff Benny Gantz posed the most credible challenge to Netanyahu’s grip on power in the last three elections, but most of his supporters abandoned Gantz last year when he agreed to join Netanyahu in what was billed an emergency pandemic-focused government. But Netanyahu preferred new elections rather than uphold an agreement to let Gantz take over as prime minister after 18 months.
Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel – who make up about 20% of the country — voted in record numbers against Netanyahu last year and helped block his path to a right-wing government. But an LGBTQ rights debate and other disagreements within the Arab community shattered the joint coalition of Arab parties, and has helped Netanyahu court some Arab voters.
“I believe his legal situation will force him to lean towards the Arabs, and take the Arab votes, and he will advance projects for the Arabs in Israel,” said Naji Amer, a retired doctor in the Arab city of Kufr Qassem, who is voting for the United Arab List, an Islamist party that might be willing to partner with Netanyahu.
What could tip the scales in Netanyahu’s favor is the fate of two small parties in the anti-Netanyahu camp, the leftist Meretz and centrist Blue and White, which are polling dangerously low and at risk of not winning enough votes to make it into parliament.
“It’s enough that one of them is not going…to pass the threshold for Netanyahu to be able then to have a majority government,” said Israeli pollster Camil Fuchs.
Election officials also warn there could be attempts to delegitimize the results of the vote. Netanyahu’s son Yair, a fierce ally of his father who has promoted false conspiracy theories online, has questioned the impartiality of a member of Israel’s elections commission and claimed the committee “stole” a recent vote.
Israel does not allow mail-in ballots or absentee voting, but in this election, ballot boxes will be set up in retirement homes for the elderly so they are not exposed to crowds at polling stations. Israel has also set up free shuttle service to designated polling places for COVID-19 patients and quarantined Israelis. There are even drive-thru polls.
Those votes will be sent to the main elections committee headquarters in Jerusalem to be counted, which officials expect will slow down the final tally. The committee says it expects to finish counting only by Friday afternoon, just before the government shuts down for the Jewish Sabbath and Passover holiday.
No one party is expected to win a majority of seats in the Knesset. Instead, Israel’s president must choose a candidate to negotiate with other parties to form a majority coalition.
Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and blockaded Gaza Strip do not have voting rights in Israel, but they have noted Netanyahu’s campaign vows to retroactively legalize unauthorized Israeli settlement outposts, more than 100 of which dot the hills of the West Bank, where Palestinians want independence.
“Although we consider these elections an internal affair, all their electoral campaigns were at the expense of our land and our people, and the parties are competing for more land and more settlements,” said Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh in a statement. “We condemn these frenzied campaigns against our land, our sanctities and our people, and we demand that the world act to stop all these procedures.”
A printing house in an Israeli settlement in the West Bank, whose workers are mostly Palestinian non-citizens, is printing the ballots for the election.
