Downing Street issued the alarming projection as it piled pressure on Greater Manchester to enter a Tier 3 lockdown. But it’s not a formal prediction from SAGE and doesn’t appear to include the Nightingale Hospital

Coronavirus patients could take up Greater Manchester’s entire intensive care capacity by November 12, No10 claimed today.

Boris Johnson ’s spokesman issued damning projections as he piled pressure on the region to enter a Tier 3 lockdown.

The PM’s spokesman said that under a “best case” scenario – that cases double every two weeks – all free intensive care unit (ICU) capacity in the region is projected to be used up by October 28.

Greater Manchester would pass the peak of the first wave by November 2.

Covid patients would take up entire current ICU capacity by November 8, and all surge ICU capacity by November 12. Asked if that meant hospitals being overwhelmed, the spokesman said: “Yes, that’s the entire surge ICU capacity.”

However, the “surge capacity” in the model appears not to include Manchester’s Nightingale Hospital.