The group, who call themselves Independent Sage, have said the UK is at a crunch point and must act now to try and get a grip on the spread of the virus
The UK has reached a “crisis point” and needs to take urgent action to bring the virus under control, according to a document released by Independent SAGE today.
The group of independent scientists has claimed that Britain is just one week away from seeing levels of hospitalisations from coronavirus that were seen in March.
New modelling by neuroscientist Professor Karl Friston of University College London shows that the UK has “only two to three weeks” to improve contact tracing if we are to avoid another national lockdown.
And they claim that with the epidemic doubling every 8 days, the UK’s hospitals could soon be at a crunch point.
Mathematician Christina Pagel of UCL warned that hospitals risk being at March 17 levels by next weekend.
Professor Friston said: “Modelling shows a simple doubling of the efficacy of the test and trace system from 16% to 32% would bend the curve and save about 1000 lives but the time to act is now.
“An effective strategic response will soon be out of reach as the prevalence of infection rises.”
He called for a “shoe leather” approach to contact tracing, with a redeployment of resources away from call centres to local and experienced public health teams who can find, monitor and support people who have acquired the infection, and their contacts.
Other urgent measures proposed by Independent SAGE, as part of a ten-point plan, include the suspension of indoor service in pubs and restaurants, indoor socialising limited to bubbles of three households and people continuing to work from home where possible.
Schools must be funded to allow smaller, socially-distanced classes and to enable them to provide digital resources for pupils who have to stay home.
The recommendations were welcomed by Shadow Health and Social Care Secretary Jonathan Ashworth who attended the live-streamed consultation.
He said: “I’m here in Leicester where we have a huge number in precarious work and high levels of child poverty and the idea that people can isolate for two weeks without financial support is for the birds.”
He added: “Put public health in control. Put our NHS labs in control. Invest in public health infrastructure. Invest in our National Health Service.
“Don’t waste money on these big outsourcing companies who have got no experience of this and who are making a complete mess of it.”
Sir David King, chair of Independent SAGE said: “We have never been in control of tracking the virus and now it’s got completely out of hand.
“If we sit on our hands for a couple of weeks it will be way beyond our ability to handle it without a lockdown.”
It came as it was reported that ministers were considering nationwide coronavirus curbs which could see hospitality businesses forced to shut are being examined to prevent a fresh wave of deaths.
Boris Johnson is reportedly considering a “circuit break” of a few weeks, to be take place at half term, as experts battle to contain a new spike in Covid-19.
“Active discussions” are reportedly underway in Number 10 about how to respond to the sharp increase in cases.
And one option on the table is a short period of stricter rules in England, which Downing Street denied would amount to a full-scale second lockdown – which Health Secretary Matt Hancock said would be a “last resort”
A Number 10 spokesman said: “We’ve always been clear that our strategy is to keep the virus down as much as possible while protecting education and the economy.
“We are prepared to take action that is necessary, but we obviously want to avoid any extended lockdown.”
Large swathes of the country will be slapped with tough new curbs from Tuesday, the Government announced today.
Parts of England’s North West, West Yorkshire and the Midlands will have restrictions imposed after the weekend.
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Residents must not socialise with other people outside of their own households or support bubble in private homes and gardens.
Restaurants, pubs and bars will be restricted to table service only, while all leisure and entertainment venues including restaurants, pubs and cinemas, must close between 10pm to 5am.
Residents are also advised to avoid public transport unless it is essential, as well as professional or amateur sporting events.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: “We are seeing cases of coronavirus rise fast in Lancashire, Merseyside, West Yorkshire, Warrington, Halton and Wolverhampton.
Local leaders in these areas have asked for stronger restrictions to be put in place to protect local people, and we are acting decisively to support them.
I know these restrictions will make every-day life harder for many, but I know that residents will work together and respect the rules so we can reduce rates of transmission.”
