Sudan’s attempted military coup looks increasingly frail as tens of thousands of civilians continue to protest the ousting of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.
The demonstrations in the streets have been met with deadly force, and at least 12 people have been killed, according to various media reports.
However, the scale and duration of the civilian resistance appears to have caught the armed forces by surprise, placing strain on relations within the military infrastructure.
As well as mass demonstrations in major cities, roadblocks have been set up by civilians across Sudan, intended to keep security forces out of neighborhoods and signify defiance in the face of the military’s seizure of power in Khartoum on Oct. 25.
Experts are now anticipating that coup leader General Abdel-Fattah Burhan may have to settle for a power-sharing agreement with the civilian portion of the transitional government, but not before further violence.
Violence to escalate
In a statement published on the official Facebook page of the country’s information ministry on Monday, Hamdok “insisted on the legitimacy of his government and transnational institutions,” and argued that his reinstatement could help bring a solution to the country’s instability.
The U.S. and the World Bank swiftly suspended aid disbursements to Sudan following the coup, while foreign leaders called for the military to release Hamdok and other detained officials. Robert Besseling, CEO of political risk consultancy Pangea-Risk, said in a research note Monday that France may also retract its offer of a bridge loan to settle Sudan’s huge arrears.
“The instability may disturb oil exports from neighboring South Sudan and will have repercussions for the ongoing civil war in Ethiopia, as well as other regional conflicts and broader geopolitics,” Besseling said.
The civilian-military transitional government had been in place since April 2019, following the popular overthrow of long-reigning dictator Omar al-Bashir.
Various news outlets have reported that negotiations between the army and politicians over a power-sharing deal are underway in the capital, signifying a potential reversal of the coup.
In a video from Khartoum on Sunday, U.N. envoy Volker Perthes told reporters that a proposal had been presented to all sides, and voiced hope that a deal will be struck in the coming days.
Reports have suggested that Hamdok may be given full executive powers and for him to appoint a cabinet of experts, along with a three-member honorary transitional council to replace the 14-member military-civilian Sovereign Council, of which Burhan was the chair.
The military could lead a security and defense council and a Parliament would be established to represent political parties, the military and various rebel groups, unconfirmed reports have said.
