Investing in a Broadway show is a high-risk venture: only one out of five productions recoup their investment. But the 20% of profitable productions – such as “Hamilton” – often rake in massive revenue for their investors.
But that was before Covid.
With the New York theatre industry closed for over a year and theatregoers hesitant to return to crowded indoor spaces amidst a substantial increase in Covid cases associated with the delta variant, producers have cause for concern. Ticket sales are not booming back.
On September 14, three highly profitable mega musicals: “Hamilton,” “Wicked,” and “The Lion King,” will be among the first Broadway musicals to open at 100% capacity. Although tickets have been on sale for months, neither “Wicked” nor “The Lion King” – the top two highest-grossing musicals in history – sold out their first week of performances. “Hamilton,” which historically sold out months of performances within minutes, also has plenty of opening week availability. Between September 14, 2021, and June 5, 2022, only one performance of “Hamilton″ is sold out.
“Wicked” producers declined to comment. The producers of “Hamilton” did not respond to requests for comment.
John Kenrick, an American theater historian, lyricist, and theater producer who has worked on several Broadway musical productions, including the 1994 revival of ”Grease” and “Rent,” says Broadway producers have significant reason to be concerned. “Every production, regardless of its size, is facing the question of life and death,” he said.
Both on and off Broadway, live event venue producers attribute the sluggish ticket sales to industry volatility caused by the delta variant. Michael Rosenberg, managing director of the McCarter Theatre, a major regional theatre in Princeton, NJ. and former managing director of La Jolla Playhouse in California, said it is to be expected that theatergoers will be hesitant, but that is not a reason to stop the show.
“When shows are reopening, people are making their buying decisions much more closely to the performance date than we’re used to seeing,” said Rosenberg. “People are going to be a little more cautious about [buying tickets] eight weeks, nine weeks, ten weeks out.”
The pandemic already forced five Broadway productions to close and postponed the opening dates of seven other productions – many of whose fates remains unknown.
Should Broadway take its shot?
While Broadway’s reopening may have seemed on surer footing two months ago, the surge in Covid cases due to the highly transmissible Delta variant questions the decision to reopen in September.
“The theater-going public are voting with their dollars,” Kenrick said. “If you rush this, it’s going to cost you a lot more than if you take it slow and steady.”
While the Broadway League announced measures on July 30 to prevent the spread of Covid – such as mask and vaccination requirements for all Broadway theatres – Kenrick remains skeptical.
In a sign of the uncertainty, the Broadway League announced it will not be distributing box office grosses for the 2021-22 season, a decision it said was based on factors including the staggered roll-out of returning and new productions, and anticipated variations in performance schedules.
London’s equivalent reopening experiment doesn’t instill confidence.
On July 19, London’s West End attempted to reopen when capacity restrictions were lifted. Andrew Lloyd Webber’s $8.1 million production of “Cinderella″ canceled its opening night performance after a cast member tested positive for Covid. Lloyd Webber halted performances indefinitely on July 19, and on July 23, he announced the production would open August 18. However, in an interview with The Telegraph, Lloyd Webber stated: “who knows when we will open here? 2084?”
Andrew Lloyd Webber, through his firm, did not respond to a request for comment.
Other productions in London, including “Hairspray,” “Romeo & Juliet,” “Bach and Sons,” and “The Prince of Egypt,” canceled performances due to confirmed or suspected Covid cases. The London Coliseum, where “Hairspray” currently performs, merely “encourages” face coverings and does not require patrons to be vaccinated. London has multiple theater organizations, but none enforce Covid guidelines like the Broadway League, mostly pointing to “recent government guidance.”
Kenrick believes a successful reopening can only occur if producers wait until the pandemic is under control. Otherwise, Broadway will suffer the same fate as London: productions will close for weeks on end only to open for a few days before closing once more. The financial consequences of this strategy are potentially enormous.
“Covid does not operate on our calendar,” he said. “It doesn’t give a damn about our financial needs. Until everybody gets a lot more sensible about that, we’re going to pay a price for it.”
